汉江上游金水河流域氮湿沉降

汉江上游金水河流域是南水北调工程的重要水源涵养区,但是氮污染已成为该流域水质的主要威胁因素.该研究对汉江的金水河流域开展了为期1 a(2012-02~2013-02)的氮湿沉降观测,并利用氮输出模型估算了氮湿沉降对河流氮负荷的贡献量.结果表明雨水中总氮(DTN)的浓度在0.24~2.89 mg·L-1之间,铵态氮(NH+4-N)、硝态氮(NO-3N)及有机氮(DON)分别占42.8%、13.3%和43.9%;雨水氮浓度随降雨量增大而变小,明显受到降雨的稀释作用.流域内氮湿沉降主要来自人类活动,沉降负荷在4.97~7.00 kg·(hm2·a)-1之间,受降雨量的主要影响,上游地区的氮湿沉降负荷>下游地区>中游地区,春夏两季约占全年氮湿沉降的81%.流域氮湿沉降对河流氮负荷贡献量约为34 000~46 000 kg,只占流域氮肥贡献量的5.05%~6.78%,远小于流域内农业活动化肥氮的贡献量,不是河流氮的主要来源.     

1987-2006年厦门市土地利用变化检测分析

通过对厦门市五个时相的土地利用变化检测,分析了厦门市1987年-2006年间各分区的土地利用变化及各地类在各年间的变化情况,并分析其变化原因.     

油品装卸过程静电特性研究

为了研究油品装卸过程中的静电危险性,在两个城市的油库和加油站对油品的装油、卸油过程,以及装油的油罐车从油库向加油站行驶的过程中,油罐车内油品的油面电位进行了静电检测。通过对大量油罐车内油面电位的检测数据分析可以看出,在正常装卸油过程中,油罐车内油品的油面电位远远小于标准所规定安全油面电位,有缩短稳油时间的可能性。     

Improved models of failure time for atmospheric tanks under the coupling effect of multiple pool fires

Fire accidents of chemical installations may cause domino effects in atmospheric tank farms, where a large amount of hazardous substances are stored or processed. Pool fire is a major form of fire accidents, and the thermal radiation from pool fire is the primary hazard of domino accidents. The coupling of multiple pool fires is a realistic and important accident phenomenon that enhances the propagation of domino accidents. However, previous research has mostly focused on the escalation of domino accidents induced by a single pool fire. To overcome the drawback, in this study, the failure of a storage tank under the coupling effect of multiple pool fires was studied in view of spatial and temporal synergistic process. The historical accident statistics indicated that the accident scenario of two-pool fires accounted for 30.6% in pool fires. The domino accident scenario involving three tanks is analyzed, and the typical layout of tanks is isosceles right triangle based on Chinese standard “GB50341-2014”. The thermal response and damage of a target tank heated by pool fires were numerically investigated. The volume of 500 m³, 3000 m³, 5000 m³ and 10000 m³ were selected. Flame temperature was obtained by FDS, and then was input onto the finite element model. The temperature field and stress field of target tanks were simulated by ABAQUS. The results showed that the temperature rise rate of the target tanks under multiple pool fires was higher than that under a single pool fire. The failure time of the tank under the coupling effect of multiple fires was lower than that under the superposition of multiple fires without the first stage. The stress and yield strength were compared to judge the failure of the target tank. The model of failure time for the tank under the coupling effect of pool fires was established. Through the verification, the deviation of this model is 4.02%, which is better than the deviation of 15.76% with Cozzani's model.     

基于缓冲区重采样的LSTM林火预测模型*

为提高林火风险预测精度,挖掘地图上隐含的空间信息、时间序列上隐含的长期趋势和循环波动,提出1种基于缓冲区重采样的长短期记忆（LSTM）林火预测模型,选取15个与林火相关的影响因素,以方差膨胀因子为评价指标对其进行多重共线性检验,方差膨胀因子大于10的因素具有共线性,并采用信息增益率验证筛选结果的合理性。考虑到火灾的空间聚集特性,采用缓冲区分析与过采样相结合方法减少样本不均衡现象的影响,最终得到176 732条样本。对12个影响因素和研究时间段的火点建立LSTM预测模型,对森林火灾发生风险进行预测。研究结果表明:基于缓冲区重采样的LSTM林火预测模型有效考虑时空上隐含的信息,预测模型准确率为87.06%,特异性为97.99%,敏感度为76.12%,阳性预测率为97.43%,阴性预测率为80.41%,ROC曲线与AUC值均优于随机森林（RF）和支持向量机（SVM）这2种基准算法。维尔克松秩和检验发现,本文提出的模型与基准算法结果具有显著性差异。研究结果可为提高林火风险预测精度提供参考。     

Effects of sludge retention time, carbon and initial biomass concentrations on selection process: From activated sludge to polyhydroxyalkanoate accumulating cultures

Four sequence batch reactors (SBRs) fed by fermented sugar cane wastewater were continuously operated under the aerobic dynamic feeding (ADF) mode with different configurations of sludge retention time (SRT), carbon and initial biomass concentrations to enrich polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) accumulating mixed microbial cultures (MMCs) from municipal activated sludge. The stability of SBRs was investigated besides the enrichment performance. The microbial community structures of the enriched MMCs were analyzed using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP). The optimum operating conditions for the enrichment process were: SRT of 5 days, carbon concentration of 2.52 g COD/L and initial biomass concentration of 3.65 g/L. The best enrichment performance in terms of both operating stability and PHA storage ability of enriched cultures (with the maximum PHA content and PHA storage yield (Y_PHA/S) of 61.26% and 0.68 mg COD/mg COD, respectively) was achieved under this condition. Effects of the SRT, carbon concentration and initial biomass concentration on the PHA accumulating MMCs selection process were discussed respectively. A new model including the segmentation of the enrichment process and the effects of SRT on each phase was proposed.     

分子生物学技术在水处理中的应用研究进展

利用现代分子生物学技术对微生物进行分析和研究,以解决传统微生物分析成本高、速度慢、准确度较低和灵敏度较差等缺点。介绍分子生物学技术在水处理中的应用现状,并对未来发展方向提出建议。目前分子生物学技术在供水工程中主要用于水中细菌、病毒、原生动物、蠕虫等病原微生物的快速检测以及管网微生物种群的分析,在污水处理中主要用于脱氮除磷过程菌群数量和空间分布的剖析、污泥膨胀成因分析以及监测微生物种群多样性来优化处理工艺。分子生物学技术的深入研究将进一步促进水行业的发展。     

机载武器及其双配套设备可靠性鉴定试验方案的分析

通过分析机载武器的使用特点和情况,并结合实验室开展机载武器可靠性鉴定试验的已有经验,对该类装备的可靠性鉴定试验的方案进行了分析和讨论,对试验样件在充足或不足的条件下进行试验的各种试验方案进行了深入分析。指出了各种方案的优缺点,对比了各种试验方案的特点。最后给出了机载武器可靠性鉴定统计试验方案的选取原则。     

铝合金-丁腈橡胶航空带垫卡箍典型环境损伤研究

目的研究典型环境对丁腈橡胶-铝合金带垫卡箍的损伤效应。方法通过模拟铝合金-丁腈橡胶航空带垫卡箍使用时的装配结构和应力状态,应用GJB 150A—2009中的湿热和太阳辐射两种典型老化环境,采用宏观形貌观察、卡箍保持力测试和橡胶衬垫拉伸性能测试方法,结合扫描电子显微镜和傅里叶红外光谱技术,分析带垫卡箍的性能劣化过程。结果带垫卡箍在湿热和太阳辐射环境中老化50 d后,卡箍橡胶衬垫表面出现大量微孔缺陷,拉伸性能大幅降低,导致卡箍保持力分别下降了35%和51%。结论带垫卡箍在模拟装配状态下进行湿热和太阳辐射环境暴露实验,卡箍橡胶衬垫内部结构由致密逐渐变得疏松,部分碳碳双键发生氧化交联反应,并在一定程度上提高了聚合物的交联密度,材料硬度提高,回弹性能减弱,橡胶衬垫对芯轴的包裹能力降低,导致卡箍保持力性能降低。     

航空装备外场级平均修复时间评估研究

目的探索航空装备部队使用保障阶段维修性指标评估的实施方法。方法构建航空装备外场级平均修复时间评估指标体系,包括评估条件界定、统计准则确定、数据处理方法、评估流程、使用表格等,并结合具体机型进行评价应用。结果该机型飞机整机的累计修复时间为138.5 h,平均修复时间Mct=2.17 h,满足不大于3 h指标要求。结论评估方法系统科学,可为各类装备开展相关维修性评估工作提供方法支持和工程借鉴。